Who Benefits From Market Speed Bumps? The Exchanges

<p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="159" data-total-count="159">Since the election, stock prices have risen sharply on hopes that a wave of pro-growth policies under Donald J. Trump will drive up equity prices even further.</p> <p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="166" data-total-count="325">But Mr. Trump’s administration will soon face a trend that threatens to move the long-term benefits found in stock markets away from investors and toward exchanges.</p> <p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="166" data-total-count="325">Continue reading in The <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/23/business/dealbook/who-benefits-from-market-speed-bumps-the-exchanges.html?_r=0">New York Times</a></p> <p class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="166" data-total-count="325"><em>Holly A. Bell is an associate professor at the University of Alaska in Anchorage and a consulting scholar on financial market structure and regulation. She is also the author of the thriller <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Trading-Salvos-Kate-Adams-Novel-ebook/dp/B01H0OOUE0">“Trading Salvos.”</a></em></p>

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A Conversation on Alaska’s Budget Crisis

My August Conversation with Mike Chmielewski on Alaska's Budget Crisis on Radio Free Palmer. Listen Here <a href="http://www.radiofreepalmer.org/2016/08/19/matsu-college-professor-holly-bell-talks-about-budgets-8-10-2016/">http://www.radiofreepalmer.org/2016/08/19/matsu-college-professor-holly-bell-talks-about-budgets-8-10-2016/</a>

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Denali II

Well-structured sales tax does more for Alaska than income tax

<span class="updated">As Alaska works to balance the state budget, one thing is certain: We will all have less money in our wallets. The scale of our deficit means we are likely to see both PFD reductions and new taxes. While the governor has proposed an income tax, a sales tax may a better alternative for Alaska.</span> To continue article, <a href="http://www.adn.com/article/20160401/well-structured-sales-tax-does-more-alaska-income-tax">click here</a>

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Opinion

Occam’s razor can cut Alaska’s budget problems to the bone

<strong>My latest from Alaska Dispatch News:</strong> As our legislators gather in Juneau to consider Alaska’s budget and how to bridge the billions of dollars of shortfall between state income and spending, there are a few key points I would like them to keep in mind. I have twice listened to presentations on the various budget proposals and have each time believed that the principle of Occam’s razor was not being applied. Occam’s razor is a problem-solving principle that says when you have competing hypotheses, you should select the one with the fewest assumptions. Budgets are the state’s hypotheses of what the fiscal situation will look like over the next year and beyond. In every case, the budget proposals I have seen are based on copious assumptions about future states of numerous variables, two of which I will discuss here. When a budget proposal begins making assumptions about variables a decade or more

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Macroeconomics

One Reason Our National Economic Policy Stinks

<a href="http://www.professorhollybell.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/ID-100332225.jpg"><img class="wp-image-2757 alignleft" src="http://www.professorhollybell.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/ID-100332225-300x300.jpg" alt="Macroeconomics" width="276" height="276" /></a>Every year I attend a major economics conference to geek out with and learn from a significant collection of global economists. While just breathing the air at such an event can be inspiring, talking to people often leads to sheer terror about the future of our national and global economy. Last year’s event was no exception. At one of the many receptions I attended, I was nibbling hors d'oeuvres & sipping a glass of wine surrounded at the table by young professionals. About half worked for government agencies and the other half were PhD Students. One of the PhD students, we’ll call him Frank, was getting ready to graduate from a prestigious university in a few months with a degree in Macroeconomics and Econometrics and move to a job at the Federal Reserve. Frank fancied himself an expert on inflation targets and monetary

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Fiscal Policy

Fiscal Policy Hasn’t Been In Vogue Since 1953

<h2>The Other Fiscal Cliff Resides In a Chart</h2> <p>While running some queries on Google's Ngram Viewer, a phrase-usage graphing tool searching over 5.2 million books in Google's digital library, I came across a rather startling trend. When comparing the use of the terms "monetary policy" and "fiscal policy" I discovered that discussion of fiscal policy in the literature has been falling since about 1953, while the discussion of monetary policy has been rising substantially (see chart below). The last time fiscal policy was a substantial topic in literature was during WWII and it has been falling dramatically since the end of the Cold War in 1989. Coincidence or design? What has caused this shift? Is it a cause or symptom of our current high dependence on monetary policy?</p> <p><iframe name="ngram_chart" src="https://books.google.com/ngrams/interactive_chart?content=monetary+policy%2C+fiscal+policy&year_start=1800&year_end=2000&corpus=15&smoothing=1&share=&direct_url=t1%3B%2Cmonetary%20policy%3B%2Cc0%3B.t1%3B%2Cfiscal%20policy%3B%2Cc0" height="378" width="678" frameborder="0" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" scrolling="no"></iframe></p> <p><em>Dr. Holly A. Bell is an Associate Professor teaching business and economics at the Mat-Su College

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Obamacare

A Busload of Silicon Valley Programmers: The Senator John McCain Solution to Obamacare

<h2><a href="http://www.professorhollybell.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/ID-10089802.jpg"><img class="alignleft size-medium wp-image-2618" alt="Obamacare" src="http://www.professorhollybell.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/ID-10089802-198x300.jpg" width="198" height="300" /></a>Is the private sector the solution to a public sector problem?</h2> <p>I haven’t been blogging much lately. This is primarily due to the overall heightened state of daily outrage I’ve been walking around in for about the last year and a half. A friend told me this morning that this is a privilege reserved for those of at least 70, but I’m an old soul who has been telling cars to slow down since I was in my 20’s. I can’t live by your outrage privilege rules, man.</p> <p>I try to touch on issues and perspectives others aren’t addressing and I’ve found those subjects difficult to find lately, but Senator John McCain helped me out this morning. I was watching Fox News while eating my scrambled egg whites (another sign I might be 70) when the Senator suggested—and I paraphrase—that the solution to

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Obamacare

What Might “Obamacare” and the Healthcare Industry Look Like in 2038?

<h2><a href="http://www.professorhollybell.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/ID-100175875.jpg"><img class="alignleft size-medium wp-image-2606" alt="Obamacare" src="http://www.professorhollybell.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/ID-100175875-240x300.jpg" width="240" height="300" /></a>"Regardless of government healthcare mandates or other regulatory policies, market forces are always at work...Obamacare is a bad idea that may only get worse."</h2> By Holly A. Bell Regardless of government healthcare mandates or other regulatory policies, market forces are always at work and will mold the healthcare market to adjust to the new regulatory environment. If governments are unable to regulate away market forces, what impacts might the full implementation of the Affordable Care Act have on the healthcare market twenty years after full implementation? Using a basic economic principle, we can make some predictions about costs and demand and infer how the healthcare market and regulators might respond. <h3>Third party payer systems</h3> The primary goal of the Affordable Care Act is to ensure all American’s have affordable healthcare by creating a system of available and affordable health insurance. By doing so the government

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unemployment

Configuration Unemployment: Measuring Structural Problems in a Contemporary Economy

<h2><a href="http://www.professorhollybell.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/ID-10079499.jpg"><img class="alignleft size-medium wp-image-2600" alt="unemployment" src="http://www.professorhollybell.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/ID-10079499-300x300.jpg" width="300" height="300" /></a>"The fact that it has not disappeared from the planet, and could potentially return to countries like the U.S. under the right conditions,makes sector analysis as a measure of structural unemployment look more like the cyclical model"</h2> <p>By Holly A. Bell</p> <p>In a recent article, Paul Krugman asked: “Is there any point to economic analysis?”.  The reason for his frustration is that “Beltway conventional wisdom has settled on the proposition that high unemployment is structural, not cyclical, even though there is now a bipartisan consensus among economists that the opposite is true.” Using the narrow definition of structural unemployment, Dr. Krugman is exactly right. When utilizing economic models for structural unemployment, we would expect employment disruptions in specific industries and areas of the country, including high unemployment in the vanishing sectors and shortages of workers in the emerging area of the economy. The

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Opinion

The Bell School of Economics: An Holistic and Interdisciplinary Approach

<h3><a href="http://www.professorhollybell.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/55124g2kpw9j7g02.jpg"><img class="alignleft size-medium wp-image-224" alt="Bell School of Economics" src="http://www.professorhollybell.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/55124g2kpw9j7g02-300x237.jpg" width="300" height="237" /></a>"I'll leave labeling the "school" of economics I fall into to others."</h3> <p>By Holly A. Bell</p> <p>When I discuss economic issues people often ask me which “school” of economic thought I subscribe to. This question usually leaves me a bit tongue-tied because my approach to economics doesn’t fit neatly into any specific “school” as they are generally defined. The “Bell School” is firmly grounded in the classic market economics of supply and demand, but tends to be considerably more holistic and interdisciplinary in its approach than many of the schools of economics that are widely discussed.</p> <h3>Holistic</h3> <p>First, the Bell School is less interested in narrow interpretations of theory and more interested in practical application. It seeks to describe how an economy actually works at any point in time and assumes non-market factors are always causing distortions that draw actual market behavior

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